Anonymous asked: BTW did you think people were 'deluded' last election, and did you think Obama would lose? What were the Intrade odds for Obama winning the last election, and how does that compare to the odds for this year?
I knew Obama would win the last election. Are you kidding me? A young black guy? The Republicans could have put the risen Jesus on their ticket and the young, hip black guy would have won. It was romantic, it was historic, it was feel-good. The romanticism and historicity is now gone. I only learned about Intrade a year ago, so I don’t know what the odds were four years ago. Also don’t care. It’s not an indicator of where the country is; it’s merely a prediction of where the country will be. Right now, the odds on Intrade for Romney and Obama do not at all reflect where the country is, when you look at polls. So I think this election will fall under one of those times when, 9% of the time, Inrade is wrong.